introduction
[Author] Michael Ross (L. Ross) is a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and is affiliated with the school’s Institute of Environment and Sustainability. His main research directions are political and economic issues in resource-rich countries, as well as issues such as energy politics, civil war, democracy and gender rights.
[Compiler] Xu Wenting (Compiler of National Political Science Scholar, Master's Student of University of Chicago)
【Proofreading】Wang Zechen
【Audit】Li Yuting
【Typesetting】Huang Tingting
【Art Editor】Nie Hanlin
[Source] Ross, L. "Oil, Islam, and women." (2008): 107-123.
Journal introduction
The American Journal of Political Science (of , AJPS) is a comprehensive journal in the field of political science founded in 1957. It is also the official journal of the Midwest Political Science Association (The , MPSA). According to the data, its impact factor in 2019 was 4.271, ranking second among 176 political science journals.
Oil, Islam and Women
Oil, Islam, and Women
L. Ross
Summary
The Middle East has made less progress towards gender equality for women than any other region. Many observers claim this is due to the region's Islamic traditions. This article believes that this is due to oil issues rather than Islam. Oil production also explains why women are lagging behind in many other countries. Oil production reduces the number of women in the workforce and thus their political influence, resulting in oil-producing countries with unusually patriarchal norms, laws, and political systems. This article supports this argument with global data on oil production, women's work patterns and women's political representation, and by comparing oil-rich Algeria with oil-poor Morocco and Tunisia. This argument has implications for the study of the Middle East, Islamic culture, and the “resource curse.”
introduction
Women in the Middle East are less likely to work outside the home and less likely to hold government positions than in other regions. Most observers blame this anomaly on the region's Islamic traditions, with some even claiming that the unfair treatment of Muslim women is part of the cause of the "clash of civilizations" between Islam and the West. But this article argues that the underrepresentation of women in the workforce and government in the Middle East is due to oil issues rather than Islam. Oil and mineral production may also explain the unusually low status of women in many other countries outside the Middle East, such as Azerbaijan, Botswana, Chile, Nigeria and Russia.
Oil production affects gender relations by reducing the presence of women in the workforce. Women's withdrawal from the non-agricultural labor force will increase fertility, reduce women's education, and lower their status in the family; in the field of political life, when women work outside the home less often, they will also be less involved in exchanging information and overcoming collective problems. Action issues, political mobilization, lobbying for expanded rights, and serving in government. This has resulted in an unusually patriarchal culture and political system in oil-producing countries.
This perspective challenges the common belief that “development promotes gender equality” in economic development. This article argues that different kinds of economic development will have different effects on gender relations, depending on whether such economic development encourages women to enter the labor market. The perspective also sheds new light on understanding the “resource curse”: oil and mining production not only affects a country’s government and economy, but also its core social fabric. In addition, this article also has important policy and practical significance.
Article introduction
01
The consequences of women joining the workforce
Social theorists proposed that women could achieve social and political emancipation by working outside the home. First, the female workforce can help increase female school enrollment and literacy rates. When families realize that women can bring income, they will be willing to invest more in health and education. Second, women's entry into the workforce also affected gender relations more broadly, as women working in factories in particular would allow them to connect with each other, share information, and reduce barriers to collective action. Finally, women's participation in the labor force will increase women's political influence for many reasons. For example, working women are more likely to participate in conversations that promote certain political interests, join informal networks that facilitate collective action, and help them improve their civic skills. . Their political motivations will be fueled by being more vulnerable to gender discrimination. Research on women's political participation in developing countries is consistent with these findings.
Research shows that joining the labor force can enhance women's political influence through at least three channels: at the individual level, by affecting women's political views and identities; and at the societal level, by increasing the density of women in the workforce and thus increasing their ability to form significant political networks. Possibility; to increase their economic importance at the economic level and thereby force governments to take their interests into account.
02
Reasons for women’s participation in the workforce
Most women face particular barriers to entering the labor market. Occupational segregation ( ) between men and women tends to reduce the number of jobs open to women and their wages. In theory, women can enter the labor market by persuading governments to adopt anti-discrimination policies, but in practice, when women are excluded from the labor market, they often have only weak political influence, making governments unwilling to act on their behalf.
How do women join the workforce in large numbers despite occupational gender segregation and weak political influence? Since the early days of the Industrial Revolution, the answer to this question has usually come from low-wage, export-oriented industries. These industries do not require physically strong workers or strong vocational skills. At the same time, representatives of these industries, such as textile industry and clothing manufacturing, are regarded as traditional women's jobs, making it possible for women to become a large number of the labor force in these industries. . At the same time, factories mainly engaged in export business are also more inclined to hire women. Research shows that even within the same industry, export-oriented factories tend to hire women at higher wages than factories that focus on the domestic market. This may be due to the fact that export-oriented factories, which are oriented to international markets, can expand more easily and can therefore hire more women without displacing male workers. At the same time, export-oriented factories are more likely to be owned or managed by foreign-owned enterprises, which are less likely to engage in occupational gender discrimination against women for legal or cultural reasons. In addition, export-oriented factories compete in the global market and the need to minimize costs leads them to seek the cheapest labor. Women's wages are generally lower than men's, which also makes export-oriented factories more inclined to hire women.
03
The impact of female participation in the labor force: the case of South Korea
This paragraph introduces the case of South Korea to illustrate the social and political implications of female participation in the labor force. The industrialization of South Korea in the 1960s led to women beginning to work in export factories. Their wages, which are less than half that of men, make them favored employees by employers, which has also contributed to South Korea's economic boom. At the same time, since the 1970s, women working in the export industry have also begun to mobilize more for labor rights and gender equality. In 1987, female activists in South Korea took advantage of South Korea's democratization process to establish the Korean Women's Association Union (KWAU). In the mid-1990s, women's organizations began to promote and seek more representation of women at all levels of government. rights, and achieved fruitful results such as an increase in the number of female legislators and judges. The lobbying power of the women's movement and the increase in the number of women in the government have also caused changes in South Korea's social and political ecology. The government has successively introduced guarantees such as the Gender Equal Employment Act, the Mother and Child Welfare Act, and the Korean Women's Development Basic Act. Women's Rights Act. Export-oriented manufacturing helped Korean women gain a foothold in government by attracting women into the workforce and opened the door to reforming the patriarchal system.
04
How oil production affects women's participation in the workforce
Countries that have newly discovered oil are prone to an economic phenomenon known as "Dutch Disease", characterized by an increase in the real exchange rate and an economic shift from the "traded sector" (agriculture and manufacturing) to the "non-traded sector" (Dutch). construction and services). If we extend the Dutch disease model, we can see how the boom in oil production pushed women out of the labor force in most low-income countries.
In the traditional "Dutch disease" model, the development of oil production will crowd out the production of other traded goods through two mechanisms. First, the influx of foreign currency will raise the real exchange rate, making it cheaper to buy foreign imports than to buy them from domestic producers. Secondly, the new wealth will increase the demand for non-tradable goods, which will lead the labor force from the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector, thereby forming a gap in prices and profits between the two sides, leading to the decline of the tradable sector and the expansion of the non-tradable sector. In the traditional female labor supply model, there are two key factors that affect the number of women in the labor market: One is the general wage of women. When it rises, women are more inclined to enter the market and replace leisure with work. The second is "female non-labor income" ( ), which refers to the income received by a woman's family, but she does not directly earn this income. When household income increases, women are less inclined to enter the labor market to earn another income. When the family income increases, its "reservation wage" (the wage that a woman considers worthy of entering the labor market) will also increase. At this time, only a job with a decent salary will attract her to enter the labor market; and when the family income decreases, women's "reservation wage" will also increase. The "reservation wage" will also be lower, making a woman more inclined to join the labor force even if she is generally paid less.
The traditional "Dutch disease" model has an ambiguous impact on female labor force participation, which would increase prevailing wage levels, making women more motivated to enter the labor market. But at the same time, the increase in general wages has also increased family income levels, which in turn makes women less willing to enter the labor market. When we expand the "Dutch disease" model and consider the factor of occupational gender segregation, we will find that in many developing countries, most women work in the trade sector. This is because many types of work in the non-trade sector require heavy manual labor or Contact with men outside the family. When we assume that there is gender segregation in the labor market, the boom in the oil industry will cause differences in the wages of men and women. In our model, we assume that men only work in non-traded industries and women only in traded industries. As a result of this assumption, the expansion of non-tradable industries brought about by oil will increase the demand for male labor and raise their wages, while the concomitant shrinkage of tradable industries will reduce the demand for female labor and lower their wages. At the same time, the oil boom will also increase women's non-labor income through increases in men's wages and government transfer payments, thus increasing their reservation wages and making them less willing to enter the labor market.
Next, this article relaxes some of the key assumptions of the model and further explores the changes in the female labor force under the oil boom. The model assumes a country has an open economy, but sometimes the governments of oil-producing countries use tariffs and subsidies to protect their tradable sectors. This article believes that this will not affect the conclusions drawn above. First, governments of oil-producing countries tend to protect domestic heavy industry rather than light industry. Second, even if the government protects light industry, once the domestic trade sector obtains government protection, it loses the incentive to compete with imported products and therefore has no incentive to find cheap labor and hire female workers. The model in this article also assumes that the number of working-age men and women in a country is fixed, but many small oil-producing countries import male and female workers from abroad. If the government can introduce male workers from abroad, the wages of domestic male workers will not increase, but the government will still receive a large amount of oil revenue, increase transfer payments, and calmly increase women's non-labor income, which will also make women less willing to enter the labor market. . If the government can bring in female workers from abroad, then the general wage of women will drop to a level lower than the reservation wage for domestic women, which will also hinder domestic women from joining the labor force. Moreover, the addition of male and female migrant workers will expand the size of the domestic labor force. Even if the number of domestic male and female workers does not change, the proportion of the domestic female labor force will also decrease.
If we relax our assumptions about gender occupational segregation and allow men to work in the trade sector, the conclusion remains the same. After the tradable sector shrinks, both male and female workers will lose their jobs, but male workers can enter the non-tradable sector, but women cannot. Therefore, women’s wages will still fall, women’s non-labor income will still increase, and more women will withdraw from the labor market. If women can also enter the non-trading sector, the conclusion will change. At this time, the impact of the development of the oil industry on the proportion of female labor force will become blurred, depending on the degree of increase in women's wages and the increase in women's non-labor income. difference. When women's wages are high enough to exceed the female reservation wage level, there will also be a net increase in the number of women in the labor force. This suggests that oil does not necessarily hurt women's status in countries where women have free access to non-traded industries.
To sum up, the first main assumption of this article’s model is:
H1: An increase in oil production will reduce the number of women participating in the labor force.
As mentioned earlier, women’s political influence is to a certain extent a function of female labor force participation: when the proportion of female citizens participating in the labor force increases, women’s political influence will also increase. Based on this, we can further deduce the second main hypothesis:
H2: Increases in oil production will reduce women’s political influence.
The graphic below shows how oil production has political consequences for women:
Figure 1 How oil production may reduce women’s political influence
05
Data and methods
In order to test the above two hypotheses, this article uses data on oil production and employment rates in all countries from 1960 to 2002, as well as data on female political representation in 2002, to test whether there is a relationship between three core variables: oil, female work patterns and female political representation. Specific statistics related. This paper uses two estimation methods. One is a first-difference model including country fixed effects, using mixed time series cross-sectional data for all countries from 1960 to 2002; the other is a cross-country model with between-group estimators. Includes data for all countries for the last ten years. Fixed-effects first-difference models analyze changes within a country over time, while cross-country models analyze changes between countries.
The structure of the country fixed effects first-difference model is as follows:
The cross-country model structure using the between-groups estimator is as follows:
where i represents the country, t represents the year, and x represents a series of explanatory variables.
The independent variable of this model is oil revenue per capita (Oil Rents Per), which refers to a country’s annual total oil and gas revenue divided by its mid-year total population. This model has two dependent variables. One is female labor force participation (Labor Force), which is based on national survey and census data collected by the International Labor Organization and released by the World Bank. The use of the first-difference model and the removal of agricultural sector labor and migrant workers from the data set solve the problem of inconsistent labor definitions and statistical methods faced by this data. The second is the political influence of women. This article uses two variables to measure it, namely female seats (Seats, which measures the proportion of seats held by women in the country's parliament) and female ministers (, which measures the proportion of women in the country's ministerial officials). ). This model also includes some control variables, such as income (), whether it is a Middle Eastern country (East), the proportion of Muslims in the country's population (Islam), whether it is a communist country (), the proportion of the working-age population (Age), and about the political system Variables: whether it is a proportional representation system ( ), whether it uses a closed list ( List) and political system ( ).
This paper uses three methods to test model robustness: First, to determine whether the estimates are sensitive to influential observations, the authors re-estimate after removing the two most influential countries from the data set. Second, to test whether the cross-country regression results on female labor force participation are limited to the period covered (1993 to 2002), the authors examine the decades 1960 to 1969, 1970 to 1979, and 1980 to 1989. The same model was used in . Finally, to test whether the cross-country model is biased by excluding important regional effects, the authors add a set of regional dummy variables to the model.
06
result
Table 1 Mixed time series cross-national regression (including first difference and fixed effects)
Table 2 Cross-national regression of female labor force
1. Female labor force participation
Oil revenues have a strong negative impact on female labor force participation. In first-difference regression estimates (Table 1), an increase in oil income in a given year is consistently associated with a decrease in female labor force participation in the next year. In the cross-country estimates (Table 2), oil income is also negatively associated with female labor force participation. Variables such as income, Middle East, working age and communism are also related to female labor force participation in the expected direction. The variable Islam is not significant (columns 2 and 4). The estimation results of both models passed the robust test and were consistent with hypothesis H1.
2. Female Representation
Table 3 shows the proportion of women holding parliamentary seats in different types of countries. The table shows that women have better political representation in oil-scarce countries in five of seven categories: high- and low-income, Middle Eastern, Islamic and overall. In the remaining two categories (non-Middle Eastern and non-Islamic), female representation is stronger in oil-rich countries than in oil-poor countries, but this is only true when we include both developed and developing countries in the sample. Once we restrict the sample to developing countries, we again see that women are less represented in oil-rich countries than in oil-poor countries, even among non-Middle Eastern and non-Muslim countries.
Table 3 Number of parliamentary seats won by women in 2002
In cross-country regressions, oil income is negatively related to all three measures of women's political representation. The first column of Table 4 shows that income is associated with higher levels of female representation, while Middle East is associated with lower levels. In column 2, Islam is also associated with fewer seats for women, although it is only significant at 0.10. Column 3 shows that oil income is strongly associated with lower levels of female representation and that including it reduces the coefficient on the Middle East variable by one-third. This also causes the Islamic variable to lose statistical significance at the 0.10 level (column 4). The correlation between oil revenues and female seats is strong: unaffected by the exclusion of the two most influential countries and by regional dummies. The results are also unchanged if women's seats are measured in 1995 (the earliest year available) instead of 2002. Columns 6, 7 and 8 show that the variable “Oil revenue” is robust to the inclusion of control variables for political institutions (polity, proportional representation and closed lists) that may influence women's political representation. The variable measuring the size of the region is not statistically significant, nor is the variable measuring the number of immigrants, which may affect female political representation.
Table 4 Cross-country regression of women’s parliamentary seats
Oil revenue has a similar negative association with female ministers (Table 5). Islam's influence on female ministers is even smaller than its influence on female seats (columns 2 and 4). These results are consistent with hypothesis H2, suggesting that oil production will reduce women's political influence. There is also evidence that female labor force participation helps explain why oil revenues are associated with reduced female representation. Female labor force participation is closely related to female seats, and the addition of female participation leads to a significant decrease in the oil coefficient (Table 3, column 5). Women's labor force participation is not significantly associated with the number of female ministers, although including it renders the oil rents variable insignificant (Table 5, column 5). These results are consistent with the idea that oil production reduces women's political influence by reducing the number of women working outside the home.
Table 5 Cross-country regression of female ministerial positions in 2002
07
Oil and the Middle East
The above regression results show that Islam does not have a statistically significant effect on any of the dependent variables in the model. This means that some measures of women's status in the Middle East can be explained in part by the region's oil wealth rather than its Islamic culture or traditions. This is not true across all dimensions of women's status, however: women's educational attainment (including adult literacy, primary school enrollment and the ratio between male and female school enrollment) is negatively correlated with Islam and does not appear to be affected by oil income Influence. Do the statistical results described above confuse the effects of oil with Arab Islamic culture? The relationship between oil and women's status in the Islamic countries of the Middle East is discussed below.
Figures 3 to 6 are scatter plots showing per capita oil income in each country and four measures of women's status (female labor force participation rate, women's electoral years, proportion of seats held by women in parliament, and proportional gender rights). )The relationship between. Overall, the most oil-rich countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman) have the fewest women in the non-agricultural workforce, are reluctant to enfranchise women, have the fewest women in parliament, and score lowest on the gender rights index . Countries with little oil (Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria and Djibouti) were the first to enfranchise women and tended to have more women in the workplace and in parliament and score higher on gender rights. The outliers in the scatter plot can be explained by labor outflows. Countries such as Yemen, Egypt, and Jordan are oil-starved, but their proportion of women in the labor force is still very low. This is mainly due to the large amount of labor in these countries flowing to the rich Gulf countries. .
Figure 3 Oil revenue and female labor force participation in the Middle East
Figure 4 Oil revenue and women’s suffrage in the Middle East
Figure 5 Oil revenue and women’s parliamentary seats in the Middle East
Figure 6 Oil revenue and gender rights index in the Middle East
07
Case studies: Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia
The results of the regression analysis point to a statistical link between oil production and female labor force and female representation, but it does not explain why. In order to conduct mechanism analysis, this article selects Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia for case analysis. All three countries were French colonies and all gained independence in the late 1950s and early 1960s. These countries soon granted universal suffrage to women after independence, and the majority of the population was Muslim. The main difference between these three countries is the amount of oil wealth. Algeria has been a major oil producer since the 1960s, with Morocco and Tunisia producing relatively little. There are also differences in the level of female political representation across the three countries, with women holding 6.2% of seats in parliament in wealthy Algeria, compared with 10.8% and 22.8% in oil-starved Morocco and Tunisia. Differences in oil wealth between them can explain their differences in the number of women in the labor force and, in turn, their differences in women’s representation.
The article then uses the aforementioned "Dutch disease" model to analyze the industrial development process of these three countries since their independence. Algeria has formed a huge oil sector due to the discovery of rich oil reserves, while Morocco and Tunisia have developed large-scale textile industries. industry. As a result, women in Algeria have not entered the labor market on a large scale, while women in Morocco and Tunisia have joined the labor force in large numbers due to the expansion of the trade sector. This has led to the increase in the political influence and representation of women in Morocco and Tunisia, and the relative strength of Algerian women. Low political influence and representation.
08
in conclusion
The development of oil and gas resources tends to reduce women's status in the workforce and increase the likelihood of women's political influence, which in turn will reinforce patriarchal systems. This mechanism could help explain the unusually low influence of women in mineral-rich countries and regions such as the Middle East. At the same time, this mechanism will also help us understand the Middle East and Islam. Many observers claim that the unusually low status of women in the Middle East is due to the patriarchal culture of Islam, Arab countries, or the Middle East as a whole. Some also believe that gender inequality in the Middle East is a core reason for the region's failure to achieve democratization. . This article shows that these criticisms are not entirely correct and that the patriarchy prevalent in the Middle East has little to do with Islam and everything to do with its oil-based economy. At the same time, this research can also help us better understand the "resource curse": oil resources not only have an impact on war, democracy, and economic development, but also have an impact on gender relations.
Translator's comments
The status of women in the Middle East and Muslim countries has always been a focus of political science and sociology. Early modernization theories mostly attributed the low economic, social and political status of women in the region to the region's religious and cultural traditions, and even suggested that this was a sign that the region had not yet realized modernization. This article refutes this view to a certain extent by analyzing the impact of oil, which is very helpful for us to better study the social environment and political ecology of the Middle East. In addition, this article studies the relationship between oil and women's status by extending the classic "Dutch Disease" model. The extended analysis of this model has high theoretical significance. The research conclusions of this article can be extended to other regions rich in oil and mineral resources in the world, such as Latin America and Eastern Europe. They have good universality and have strong reference significance.
In terms of writing, the first half of this article focuses on how the development of the oil industry affects women's labor force participation and political influence, and conducts a mechanism analysis, proposing the transmission mechanism of the development of the oil industry – the shrinkage of the trading sector – women's withdrawal from the labor force, and in The second half of the article analyzes the results of this mechanism under different assumptions, which is relatively in-depth. However, the author's mechanism analysis is also based on the assumption that there is "occupational gender segregation" between men and women. The "Dutch Disease" model based on occupational gender segregation is the basis of the entire analytical framework of this article. This article proposes that the low occupational and political status of women in oil countries is mostly due to oil rather than the country’s cultural traditions. But is the phenomenon of “occupational gender segregation” still caused by the country’s historical and cultural traditions? Can the two factors of oil and historical and cultural traditions be completely independent? This is still a problem that researchers need to pay attention to and solve.
The views of the article do not represent the views of this platform. The articles reviewed and shared on this platform are for professional learning purposes and are not for any profit. The content mainly presents an introduction to the original text. Please download the original content through the database purchased by each university.
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