In the development of urban expansion models, cellular automata (, CA) have shown certain advantages and become a commonly used urban growth model. However, some studies have also proposed that it is weak in simulating human social relations and therefore does not have enough impact. force to simulate the complexity of urban growth. Scholars published a paper on the Internet and proposed an urban CA model that combines urban quantity conversion with urban growth spatial structure, which can adaptively adjust the suitability of spatial allocation of non-urban land types to simulate more realistic urban development.

Basic definition of subject

This article identifies two entities based on the specific land development situation in Zanjan, Iran: the government (which can define development areas) and land developers (housing demand drives land development). The government body mainly limits the development area in the early stage of model establishment, mainly based on the government's planning outline and land development quantity for each area. In this article, land developers are divided into three main types: poor, middle, and rich based on income. Different indicators of land attract various types of entities to develop to varying degrees. This indicator is quantified through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and is given The weight, final indicators include:, Slope, Land price, , .

Competition among subjects and game theory

Each pixel can be accessed by different subjects according to regulations, even at the same time. So how to determine which type of subject wins the competition? The addition of game theory can better solve this problem. Its main content is players, environment, strategies and preferences. After defining these elements, the goal is to find Nash equilibrium (Nash), that is, in a certain strategy, all subjects Both can obtain the relatively highest returns, but the Nash equilibrium state is not necessarily unique. And in the competition, the information is completely open. The choices of other subjects will affect the choices of subsequent players. The starting allocation position of each subject is random, and expansion is considered starting from 4 pixels in the neighborhood, but it is also You can make a random jump to a new random unit when new land cannot be developed around the encounter. The restriction of main body development lies in the government's plan, which divides the city of Zanjan into 5 areas. Each area has an upper limit for urban land development, and the initial number of main bodies is allocated differently in the 5 areas.

Model results

Based on 5.3, perform model operations on the processed data, use the data and results of 2006 and 2011 to correct the model parameters, conduct simulation predictions for 2016, and compare the results with the real situation in 2016. And compared the simulation results with and without game theory (without game theory, those who arrive at the pixel earlier will first consider whether to develop the pixel), and used Kappa and the percentage of correct matches (Match, PCM) to conduct accuracy tests. The results It is shown that the game theory method can increase the Kappa coefficient by 13.3% and the PCM by 1.2%, that is, the game theory method can improve the simulation accuracy, and the running time also shows that the game theory does not increase the complexity of the model too much.

The editor thinks

The article applies game theory to an agent-based model to more realistically simulate the competition among land developers and the priority of high-income developers in purchasing and developing land, thus allowing for a more realistic simulation of real-life scenarios. Land development, enriching the agent-based model of urban expansion. At the same time, the article also proposes that only the expansion of four neighborhoods is considered for the time being, and subsequent research can try other neighborhood types. The article only considers the utility of developers when developing the main body, and seems to lack some exploration into their costs. Moreover, urban expansion is not only driven by residential buildings. The phenomenon of illegal urban expansion is also very common in actual situations. It is only based on the government's promulgation of Development permission may be slightly insufficient as a restrictive condition, and some combination with CA can also be considered.

Original source

F.,M. Saadi ,E.Seidi, et al. of urban using agent-based and game with [J]. , 2019, 95.